This weekend, we’ve got a PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week and that I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first chair into it last week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $50k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week at his -800 gaming lineup. I’ll take that free square foot and proceed. He should dominate this battle and he can finish it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I would like to attempt and get at least 10x from each fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones would get a finish then maybe he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. However, this is a potential 5-round battle, and that I do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be quite highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will kill half the area because that wouldn’t be sufficient points to put him on that $50k lineup.
GPP play of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it’ll be out of his wrestling. He’s among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and today he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after controlling every business he’s been in. He will not wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore that I expect him to shoot for takedowns right away and string wrestle until he receives them. When he gets high control there isn’t going to become a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he should take a beating as long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A man like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the success.
Underdog play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity alone from Sanchez should acquire it for him there as long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most these days, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I really don’t see him becoming knockout. I also don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez are the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the floor. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We must have underdogs within our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for those men like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision win here I think he can get 10x that salary and when we could find a win against him in that cheap salary, I think we will be in line for that $50k win when we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using each fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the guy I need the least of. I attempt to acquire a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I think that a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and that he really does not have the 1 punch/kick power it would take to pull off. I would be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I was making 20 or less lineups, he would be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 58-37 to get +177.62un (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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